Development Threat Analysis

The Resource Lands Assessment (RLA) provides a regional multi-state look at the most important remaining resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The RLA uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) models and expert knowledge to assess the value of resource lands within the watershed.

Map of development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed.

A development threat analysis identifies undeveloped lands that are most likely to be developed within a specific time frame. Information is presented in map form.

This report compares 26 metropolitan areas in terms of demographics, natural resources and the environment; livable communities; the economy; and transportation. The Philadelphia region’s strengths include its diverse economy; relatively affordable housing, myriad of colleges, universities, and cultural opportunities; health care resources; extensive highway and transit network; and quality air and port facilities. These strengths, however, threaten to be checked by regional challenges, including urban concentrations of poverty and unemployment; low labor force participation; disparately low educational attainment in its cities; an aging population; and fragmented local government. The challenge facing the region is identifying how to capitalize and build on its strengths while recognizing and working to resolve its identified weaknesses.

The Schuylkill Watershed Priority Lands Strategy is a model that recognizes the land-water connection and identifies the highest priority lands to protect. GIS modeling was used to identify areas within the Schuylkill Watershed that are the most important to preserve for both ecological and drinking water source protection, further defined by development threat over the next 20 years. This website is designed to make the data, methodology, results and maps of the Schuylkill Watershed Priority Lands Strategy easily accessible to open space planners, land trust staff, municipal officials, funders and others for use in making strategic open space protection decisions.

The Development Threat Assessment for SmartConservation, which analyzed the 5-county area surrounding Philadelphia, was compiled by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission for the Natural Lands between 2002 and 2003. The data used was already partially or completely available, allowing the completion of an analysis that would have otherwise been too costly and time-consuming. Five subcomponents of data were used: trend friction map, employment center travel time analysis, building activity, vulnerability index & sewer service areas.

This web page gives an overview of the Virginia Development Vulnerability Model, which was developed in an effort to map predicted growth in Virginia. This model can be integrated with other datasets, such as the VCLNA Cultural Model or Ecological Model, to identify which cultural and ecological cores are most at risk to growth pressures. The model may be used to help guide local land use planners in the development of their comprehensive plans in an effort to control growth and subsequent development within their jurisdiction. It allows users to look at the landscape as a whole and assess how growth may impact the environment, what remaining farmland or timberland is available and how water quality will be affected before more development is introduced.